[My Gang] Music: The Next 10 Years, 2010 - 2020

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30 jan. 2009, 1h21m

Continuing my series of speculative journals:
Wonky Pop. Bahahaha
Is Pop The New Avant-Garde?
RIP Indie : 1982 - 2008


It is fair to say the have been dominated by indie music. From The Strokes to The Libertines and Pete Doherty. From Oasis and The Foo Fighters all the way over to Goldfrapp, with a little wave from Bjork, as a genre exploded and scattered, each element evolving to form something new.

Where in the past, we had tastemaker TV, in the form of Top of the Pops and CD:UK, to inform us and influence the mass market, in the 00s we had download culture and a total disregard for what the music industry wanted us to buy. The whole dynamic shifted. We had the internet at our disposal. We could do whatever we wanted, listen to whatever we wanted, when we wanted, and on an increasing number of platforms, thanks to ever cheaper digital technology.

We slowly stopped socialising in clubs and started hanging out online. No longer the preserve of geeks and nerds, by the end of the 00s, if you don't have broadband and you are not online, if you don't at least use email, you are not in the loop.

The music industry as it was collapsed. We destroyed it. The very idea that we should pay full price for an album we have only heard one track from became outlandish. It was an arrogance we were forced to accept for decades but now, we didn't have to.

Last.fm started up around the middle of the decade. Our mass tagging for the is a fair reflection of the last 10 years or so.

Retro music became big news but, in my opinion, that was tied with celebrity culture and Amy Winehouse. The fascination lay with her, not retro music. The music industry tried to monetise what they thought was a new trend, spending a good year or two searching for the 'next Amy' and the best they came up with was Duffy, who pretty much destroyed the vibe before it got going with her one-note singing.

Underground, we saw great strides in , from retro 80s Hercules & Love Affair to Jóhann Jóhannsson, Max Richter and his ringtones album 24 Postcards in Full Colour, and music and from labels such as . We saw most of the new bedroom music come from this genre, Maps - We Can Create being a great example.

music didn't really change, it just went back to skool. went abstract and underground. Flying Lotus, J Dilla, Daedelus. We got two big internet stars, Arctic Monkeys and Lily Allen. Rock was sidelined, no one listened unless it had some elements.

If people were complaining in the 90s that things were accelerating, in the 00s, acceleration was almost at breakneck speed, with trends barely lasting a season sometimes. Some trends arced over a number of years, but even they were forced to evolve to keep our dissipated attention. We stopped doing one thing at a time and got used to multi-tasking. Our attention became more divided once we got home from work or school, balancing demands from people around us, the television / radio, and the internet and email, with our mobile phones by our sides.

In music, people started to just grab the tracks they wanted from albums. Listening to one whole album, in one sitting, became less and less attractive. Bands responded by creating album-albums, as opposed to albums containing a few great songs and the rest fillers, but fewer and fewer artists were rewarded for their efforts, notably Radiohead.

Pop ... heh, you just missed my typo but it's so appropriate I'm going to use it... pop became poop. Having lost tastemaker TV, the only way the music industry thought they could get our attention was to morph with reality TV. So we had Pop Idol and the other one to deal with. Only a precious few actually hit the bigtime, notably Girls Aloud and Leona Lewis.

As the decade comes to a close, we see a shift away from modern America / Western values in music to an embracing of musical styles from around the world and from history.


So what of the next decade? 2010 - 2020? What can we reasonably expect? What can we predict already? What can we hope for?

I listen to a lot of music, but even I can't listen to everything, time being a factor for one thing. If we are to look at future music trends, we need to also consider wider cultural factors, as well social, political and economic climates, and global and local trends.

I'm opening the floor to you, my fellow Last.fmers. What do you see?

In conversation somewhere else, I brainstormed the following: the future of the internet and increased broadband uptake. Cyberculture. Porno avatars. Erosion of morals and inhibitions in a bid to be noticed online. Then the opposite - the new prudes. 24/7 lifestyle. Flexibility - working at 3am, working from home or the park bench thanks to new gadgets and cheaper technology. That's if technology gets cheaper. Earth's resources plundered and precious metals getting more expensive. So we either recycle our tech or pay more in future. Mass dumbing down. Ever poorer education. Inability to concentrate on one thing. Divided attention. So a division in music - music that can be enjoyed in short bursts. Or slow music, 'old-fashioned', to be taken time over. If people have time. A whole hour dedicated to one activity a rare luxury.

If artists are to do well in the next few years, they must be able to effectively use social networking sites and communicate with their listeners. Why? Because with rising mass unemployment, we can expect to see a surge in social networking, and everyone knows online advertising doesn't work. Artists must be personable and have warmth and humanity to keep listeners coming back. Communication must at least appear to be two-way between artist and listener. On the net, Radiohead lead the way. In Last.fm, it has to be Pixieguts. Of course, there are artists we don't expect to connect with to such a degree, but this new angle will become the new norm.

The current global recession will have an immediate impact on the early years of the next decade. With rising unemployment comes greater creativity. and were born out of the troubled times and recession of the end of the 70s / early 80s. We can reasonably expect to see more homemade music and it quickly becoming available to all online, especially via social network sites. Electronic has been the favoured medium until now, but with more time on their hands, it's not unreasonable to expect artists to pick up other instruments, continuing the trend so markedly brought to the fore by The Arcade Fire and Coldplay.

The second half of the next decade is harder to see. It depends how well we recover from the global recession for a start. It also depends on us finding decent alternatives to energy because as things stand, if electricity becomes too expensive, we can kiss goodbye to sitting at our PCs all day, streaming music, downloading and file sharing. If things improve and we all feel happier again, we won't need pop, classic rock and electro-disco as much as we do right now. We can go back to being introspective and will be able to afford to wallow in something miserable, or deep and meaningful, for an hour or so.

Where before it was quite easy to predict a return to a particular decade, it's not so straightforward now with no unifying medium to bring us all together. Instead, it might be helpful to look at how we use music in our lives. We always want dinner music, dance music, background music to shop by or drown out the neighbours and the city by. We always want music to relax to, seduce to, sleep and wake up to. We want music in our cars, on our mobile devices, and we want it cheaper or free. In amongst this almighty racket, we want music to think to, to inspire us, to mull over. We want music to mark out our groups, our social standing, maybe even our age. Sometimes we want a break from music we hear all the time and want to rest our ears on something different. These are all givens. We could see a rise in local collectives, such as The Arctic Circle and The Magpie's Nest. Local music for local people. Collectives create an opportunity for small performances aimed at target audiences, or just the local community. There is no need for great budgets for big concerts or extensive travelling, gigs take place in small venues that are cheap to hire. So far, they have been word of mouth, even online. Whether they catch your eye or not is down to sheer luck or serendipity.

I think as in fashion, where we no longer have a single defining style we are all forced to adopt, the next decade might be a free-for-all, with us listeners grabbing what we want, whenever we feel like it. We will be less the victims of cynical marketing and more the consumers of music that resonates with us. It means musos will be in heaven and people who need a little guidance, who aren't so into music, will feel a little lost. They will most likely turn to tastemaker bloggers for ideas. The choices of bloggers will therefore become increasingly critical. We might see a shift away from official sites such as Rolling Stone, Pitchfork and Stereogum to smaller, individual blogs run by real people with real opinions. They are already seen as more trustworthy. Mass marketing might try to fake it but hopefully, we will see through the ruse. And with the music industry having less influence on artists, we can expect to see more self-indulgence, more progressiveness across the genres. We can expect baroque prog pop and rock, as well as more jazz-influenced music.

Far from an end to music as we know it, the collapse of the music industry in the 00s will free us to explore and we should see a rise in people enjoying music. It might just be we're not all listening to the one same thing.


Babs My Gang


PS: This is my 150th arcticle!

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Commentaires

  • Ewancusy

    interesting article, a good read

    1 fév. 2009, 15h23m
  • Babs_05

    Thanks very much, Ewancusy. Any thoughts of your own to add?

    1 fév. 2009, 19h02m
  • BadgerJohn31

    Doing my history radio shows, I haven't spent too much time looking at current trend, much less future trends. Your article offered a totally different thought process. I think you hit on some good points, your last point being the best. I think I already see that happening. Now with experience in the internet age, we might not be listening to the same music as our friends, our neighbors, or our country... Great post.

    2 fév. 2009, 4h25m
  • Babs_05

    Thanks for the comment, BadgerJohn. With you having looked so closely at music history, I'd be interested to hear if you do start thinking about future trends. Come back if anything springs to mind.

    2 fév. 2009, 19h32m
  • Soundhog

    Good speech! : ) Thoughts...blimey, where to start? There's already a seismic shift away from the manufactured label bands so many more on-line acts will flourish. However, as the labels shed acts and assets they could become leaner and still figure to a degree provided they get their own act together - and as younger, wiser heads start to replace the current batch of dinosaurs that dropped the ball on p2p/file sharing etc they will no doubt carve out a niche somewhere. So we won't see the last of [i]those[/i] acts - you know, the ones that seemingly just appear, fully formed and marketed to the nth degree, all without seeming to have paid any dues - not for the foreseeable future at least. Sites like this will be the new TOTP - streaming songs, podcasts, videos and hosting forums and offshoots for band websites. Live performances will also feature much more. I'm already seeing bands that make more out of touring their wares independently than they could ever hope to do by getting tied up to a label and all the baggage that comes with that just now. Genres will get surplanted by personal musical taste, given everyone can listen to what the h*ll they want to from the privacy of their home pc. Heh, the musos are taking over - put up or shut up. Oh, and the Beeb will bring back the Old Grey Whistle Test ; )

    2 fév. 2009, 20h53m
  • mellow_boy

    Nice article :D

    12 fév. 2009, 2h52m
  • Babs_05

    Thanks, mellow_boy.

    12 fév. 2009, 15h36m
  • avalyn2

    very interesting reading. I reckon your forecast for the future may taken longer e.g .more like 30yrs. I'm not convinced things will change by that much - big labels will still call the shots to the vast majority (remember us last.fm users are still the minority) we can but hope!

    13 fév. 2009, 21h31m
  • Babs_05

    The Times, 23 Feb 09, And the next generation? [quote]Strange though it may seem, many record company executives think that the free-but-legal business model might be the only way forward. The industry has long been plagued by pirate websites offering songs for illegal download. With Spotify and similar services such as Last.fm, the record company and the artist both get paid. Yet I can’t see Spotify ending paid-for music. Fans like to own music rather than just have access to it — and if you want to listen to tunes on an iPod or burn a CD of them, you have to buy the record. Free music services may even boost some sales as users sample new music on Spotify and then buy the albums they like. For established bands, Spotify can be used to increase the fanbase and boost sales of concert tickets and merchandise. The key issue for the industry is how such services will affect the next generation. Start-up bands need income from selling singles. They need the creative input and editing that comes with good A&R. Who will gamble and pay for new talent in the future? [/quote] Written by Paul Stokes, news editor at NME.

    23 fév. 2009, 3h33m
  • Babs_05

    Thanks for the comment, Blade19. :)

    1 mars 2009, 0h45m
  • Babs_05

    Excellent article at Ars Technica: Labels: whatever the future of music is, it isn't "free" Labels say that it's not just about the concerts and the merchandise; people will still pay for access to recorded music, but not like they used to. The future is monthly or yearly payments for access to all the tunes you want. 13 March 2009

    14 mars 2009, 9h59m
  • stevo796

    wow, great journal. i think you've pretty much nailed the trends for the start of the next decade. Hopefully though, people will go back to viewing music as a form of art, not just as a commodity or individual song. How this will happen, i have no idea, but i'm hoping for the best for the next dacade.. I'll be sure to check out a couple of your other journals too

    23 mars 2009, 20h09m
  • Babs_05

    Thanks for the comment, stevo796, glad you enjoyed it! Yes, I've got my fingers crossed and hoping for the best too. It's all so up in the air right now, anything could happen. Happy reading. :)

    23 mars 2009, 23h25m
  • aungerman1

    Hmm... this is a good article, but I think the problem is your assumption. I love indie music, and I will attest that it has a sizeable following, but in no way has it dominated the 2000's by any means. I wonder if you're coming at this from your own perspective, yourself and your peers, but if you look to the general public of music listeners, your claims fall through. Pop has completely still been a huge factor in music, mainly because of it's versatility. It has successfully mixed itself with punk, rock, electronic, hardcore, hip hop, and yes even indie. You also leave out gaping holes of music, such as country, which in the post-youth world, still reigns as the top listened to genre, and hip hop, which quite frankly has been everywhere. If anything I'd say the decade has been marked mostly by pop, in it's various forms, and hip hop. The self made musicians will and already are flourishing, but all of tem still flock to a label when given the chance. labels don't dominate, but they vigorously market and most importantly follow a trend. Indie is a huge subculture, but it's no larger than the emo/hardcore subculture or other ones of the variety. I think you misinterpreted what the masses are still listening to, cause yes, in today's internet culture, it's a bit easier to avoid the trends if tyou want to, and get caught up in one litle niche. However, overwhelmingly, the vast majority of people still most listen to the songs you'd find on top 40 radio. It's right now culture, and it's moving faster than ever.

    28 sept. 2009, 9h05m
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